October Stock Market Crash!
Except that there wasn’t one. The SPY got over its recent wobble, and is making new highs again, closing at $459.25 on Friday – although you wouldn’t realize it from the financial press or, indeed, any other press
We may well be in euphoria, but it is the strangest euphoria I have encountered. Nobody seems very euphoric. Most news articles are full of doom and gloom, telling us that we are in a bubble and it’s going to crash very soon.
Robert Kiyosaki, the international bestselling author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, went out on a limb a few weeks ago, predicting a ‘giant stock market crash’ in October. Well, there are a few hours to go until the end of October, but as the market is closed I don’t think it is going to happen.
On July 12, 2021, Harry Dent Jr., a ‘Harvard-trained economist’, predicted a massive stock market crash to occur within three months. That meant by mid-October. Right.
This was after his March 2021 prediction that: What could be “the biggest crash ever will hit by the end of June, if not sooner’. He was very specific: ‘the S&P falls to 2,100 — lower than the March 2020 low — and that would be a 47% to 48% drop from recent highs, though it may go to 4,000 first’.
There were many more predictions of disaster; the 2 above are merely a sample. They will join the ever-increasing ranks of predictions that never happened. Like the Dent prediction in 2017 showing the 80% crash was just weeks away. Here is what he thought was going to happen to the Dow in 2018:
Except that that didn’t happen either. It never even got close!
What I always find strange is that after one of these incredibly wrong predictions none of these ‘gurus’ is ever held to account. No-one asks them why they got it wrong. They still get asked for their opinions on what’s going to happen next. They still get touted as ‘experts’. Why? Go figure.
So where does this leave us and the ITM strategy? Keep an eye on the news, watch for euphoria but don’t take the pundits too seriously. They are usually wrong. Keep a lookout for our ITM warning signals they WILL happen sometime. Just not now, apparently.
Reader Email Backlog
I have a bit of a backlog of reader emails. Don’t get me wrong, I love hearing from readers, but some of the questions are very long and detailed and asking about very specific situations. I do answer them all personally – I don’t use a VA to do it for me – and I have to be careful as I am not a financial adviser so I cannot help in individual situations. I can only give general information not advice. If you are waiting on a reply from me, please accept my apologies, I am on it, and will clear the backlog in a couple of days!
ITM Bear Strategy Book
This has been my highest priority. Everything is still on track, the book is written, the backtesting completed, and now it is just editing and getting ready for publication. The results of the backtesting going back to 1993 (when SPY started) are wonderful. Even if you don’t want to do the ITMB bear market strategy (although I can’t think why you wouldn’t want to), the ITM bull strategy backtest has reached back an extra 13 years to 1993 also – and the results are pretty fantastic too.
The mid-November deadline for publication is still on track, and ITM readers will get advance notice, and an opportunity to buy the book at a 50% discount. I think that when you see the results of the combined bull and bear strategy you will be as excited as I am.
Happy Trading
